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What does a price on a prediction market actually mean, and why should a voter, investor, or curious citizen care? Polymarket and similar decentralized prediction platforms convert collective beliefs into dollar-denominated signals. But those signals are not magic truths — they are mechanistic outputs of trades, incentives, and institutional constraints. This article explains how the Polymarket app produces “odds”, where that information helps, where it misleads, and what traders and observers in the U.S. should watch before treating a market price as a forecast. The focus here is how the pricing mechanism......

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